Heat vs Kings prediction NBA · Tuesday, January 20
At a glance
The Sacramento Kings (12-31) host the Miami Heat (22-21) on Tuesday, January 20 at 10:00 PM ET at Golden 1 Center in NBA action. Final score: Heat 130 – Kings 117. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Heat a 61% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Kings are 9-14 at home and the Heat are 7-14 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 4-6 for the Kings and 4-6 for the Heat (current streaks: Kings L1, Heat L1).
The analysis Model
The Heat are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Kings 114 – 117 Heat, a margin of about 3.4 points in favor of the Heat and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Heat played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter.
- The overall strength gap (-6.5 vs +0.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Kings need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Heat's offense (117.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
MIASAC
Top performers
Heat
Bam AdebayoC · #1325pts / game
Pelle LarssonG · #99assists
Jaime Jaquez Jr.F · #249reboundsKings
DeMar DeRozanG · #1023pts / game
Russell WestbrookG · #187assists
Dylan CardwellC · #3212reboundsRecent form
MIASAC
SAC
Team comparison
| MIA | SAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 22-21 | Record | 12-31 |
| 117.4 | Points scored / game | 111.7 |
| 116.5 | Points allowed / game | 119.3 |
| +0.8 | Adjusted margin / game | -6.5 |
| L1 | Current streak | L1 |
| 4-6 | Last 10 games | 4-6 |
| 7-14 road | Home / road record | 9-14 home |
| 37-45 (+0.6) | Last season | 40-42 (+0.5) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Heat
Injury report Kings
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.