Hawks vs Thunder prediction NBA · Monday, December 29
At a glance
The Oklahoma City Thunder (27-5) host the Atlanta Hawks (15-18) on Monday, December 29 at 8:00 PM ET at Paycom Center in NBA action. Final score: Hawks 129 – Thunder 140. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Thunder a 86% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Thunder are 15-2 at home and the Hawks are 10-7 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 6-4 for the Thunder and 2-8 for the Hawks (current streaks: Thunder W1, Hawks L6).
The analysis Model
The Thunder start with a clear edge. The model projects Thunder 123 – 109 Hawks, a margin of about 13.6 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 232 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Thunder played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter.
- The overall strength gap (+11.8 vs -1.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Hawks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (107.4 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
ATLOKC
Top performers
Hawks
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #730pts / game
Dyson DanielsG · #57assists
Onyeka OkongwuF · #1714reboundsThunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #239pts / game
Jalen WilliamsG · #87assists
Chet HolmgrenC · #79reboundsRecent form
ATLOKC
OKC
Team comparison
| ATL | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 15-18 | Record | 27-5 |
| 118.6 | Points scored / game | 121.3 |
| 119.9 | Points allowed / game | 107.4 |
| -1.1 | Adjusted margin / game | +11.8 |
| L6 | Current streak | W1 |
| 2-8 | Last 10 games | 6-4 |
| 10-7 road | Home / road record | 15-2 home |
| 40-42 (-1.1) | Last season | 68-14 (+12.9) |
| No | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report Hawks
Injury report Thunder
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.