Fenerbahce vs Bayern Munich prediction EuroLeague · Thursday, April 8
At a glance
FC Bayern Munich (2-7) host Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul (6-3) on Thursday, April 8 at 2:00 PM ET at SAP GARDEN in EuroLeague action. The Basketlog model gives Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul a 64% chance to win and projects a 85-81 score (Fenerbahce – Bayern Munich), about 166 total points. This season, FC Bayern Munich are 0-4 at home and Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul are 1-3 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-7 for FC Bayern Munich and 6-3 for Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul (current streaks: Bayern Munich L4, Fenerbahce L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 32% of cases according to the model. Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
Fenerbahce is favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Bayern Munich 81 – 85 Fenerbahce, a margin of about 4.1 points in favor of Fenerbahce and a total around 166 points. Expect a game at a typical EuroLeague pace.
- The overall strength gap (-5.2 vs +2.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
- Bayern Munich needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- Fenerbahce's defense allows clearly fewer points (78.4 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison EuroLeague
FBTBAY
Recent form
FBT
76-95L
78-86W
64-61W
74-65W
99-80BAY
73-103L
84-88L
91-107L
87-95W
101-93Team comparison
| FBT | BAY | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-3 | Record | 2-7 |
| 80.8 | Points scored / game | 83.3 |
| 78.4 | Points allowed / game | 89.4 |
| +2.0 | Adjusted margin / game | -5.2 |
| L2 | Current streak | L4 |
| 6-3 | Last 10 games | 2-7 |
| 1-3 road | Home / road record | 0-4 home |
| 27-16 (+1.4) | Last season | 17-21 (-2.9) |
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.