Valencia vs Baskonia prediction EuroLeague · Tuesday, December 29
At a glance
Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz (1-7) host Valencia Basket (6-2) on Tuesday, December 29 at 2:30 PM ET at BUESA ARENA in EuroLeague action. The Basketlog model gives Valencia Basket a 76% chance to win and projects a 95-86 score (Valencia – Baskonia), about 181 total points. This season, Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz are 1-4 at home and Valencia Basket are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-7 for Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz and 6-2 for Valencia Basket (current streaks: Baskonia L5, Valencia W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 26% of cases according to the model. Prediction confidence: high.
The analysis Model
Valencia starts with a clear edge. The model projects Baskonia 86 – 95 Valencia, a margin of about 8.2 points in favor of Valencia and a total around 181 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game.
- The overall strength gap (-6.5 vs +4.9 pts/game) is the main factor.
- Baskonia needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- Valencia's offense (93.9 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- Valencia's defense allows clearly fewer points (88.1 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison EuroLeague
VBCKBA
Recent form
VBC
86-78W
104-93L
88-91L
97-102W
93-82KBA
86-104L
79-85L
78-86L
79-93L
84-92Team comparison
| VBC | KBA | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | Record | 1-7 |
| 93.9 | Points scored / game | 86.0 |
| 88.1 | Points allowed / game | 93.6 |
| +4.9 | Adjusted margin / game | -6.5 |
| W2 | Current streak | L5 |
| 6-2 | Last 10 games | 1-7 |
| 3-0 road | Home / road record | 1-4 home |
| 28-16 (+4.1) | Last season | 13-25 (-4.7) |
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.